BCREA report - Canadian retail sales

August 22, 2012

Canadian retail sales fell 0.4 per cent in June, missing the consensus forecast of a 0.1 per cent gain. Weakness in the retail sector was broad-based with 7 of 11 retail sub-sectors reporting lower sales. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales were down 0.1 per cent. Retail sales in British Columbia were even more disappointing in June, falling 1 per cent from May. However, through the first half of 2012 retail sales have grown 4.8 per cent, a significant improvement from 2 per cent growth at the half-way point of 2011.

June retail sales data is the last major data point to be released prior to Statistics Canada's release of second quarter Canadian Real GDP growth next Friday. Today's disappointing retail numbers puts our final tracking estimate of Canadian economic growth for the second quarter at 1.7 per cent.


Cameron Muir                                    Brendon Ogmundson

Chief Economist                                 Economist

Bank of Canada - overnight rate remains unchanged. BCREA projects increase as of early 2013.

Today the BCREA - BC Real Estate Association - published a news release about the latest meeting of the Bank of Canada.  The most important points are
- overnight rate remains unchanged at 1%
- economic growth as projected by the Bank of Canada is 2.1% this year and 2.3% in 2013
- inflation will be close to 2%

The economists of the BCREA expect that the overnight rate is likely to be increased as of early 2013.

If an increase in interest rates would indeed take place starting early next year, now and the next few months may be the better time to buy the Vancouver condo or Vancouver house you were thinking of.